The climate crisis and us

PACE is a collaborative research project by the University of Erfurt, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Robert Koch Institute, Federal Centre for Health Education, Leibniz Institute for Psychology and Science Media Center. PACE is funded by the Klaus Tschira Foundation and the Federal Centre for Health Education on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Health as well as through the own resources of the participating partners.

PACE is designed as a cross-sectional research project. At regular intervals, knowledge, risk perception, trust, attitudes, and behavior of the German population in the climate crisis are investigated throughout Germany. Most analyses are of a descriptive nature. Inferential statistics report correlations and results from regression analyses (see project's own Online Explorer). Causal conclusions are only possible in experimental designs.

- Regular surveys at short intervals can depict the dynamics of the communicative relationship between science and society.

- Through the serial cross-section (repeated questioning of different people on the same topics), comparisons over time are also possible to a limited extent.

- The researchers refer to existing literature / the state of research and actively exchange with communicators in the media and in authorities/politics.

- PACE provides a clear picture of public perceptions and attitudes and can help design political measures and accompanying communication campaigns that increase public support and mitigate the negative consequences of new and possibly unpopular measures.

PACE questionnaires can be viewed here.

On the project page you can find further information and results on the various survey points and focus topics.

In addition, results can be viewed in the project's own interactive PACE-Explorer. There, for example, time courses, percentages as well as correlations between different aspects can be queried and visualized.

As part of the Ariadne project "Geographical and temporal differences in approval of climate protection policy in Germany", the average population approval for a total of 26 climate protection measures in the sectors of heat, transport, and energy at the federal state, district, and municipal level between 2017 and 2021 is examined using a multi-stage regression and post-stratification model. The Climate Dashboard.de shows the approval of the population for a selection of 20 measures in 402 German districts and independent cities for the most recent survey year 2021.

The analysis identifies overall geographical and temporal differences in approval of various climate protection measures, to promote understanding of where climate policy conflicts occur, where more climate protection needs to be advertised, and what influence local extreme weather events or climate protection campaigns have on local attitudes. 

The study was conducted within the framework of the Copernicus Project Ariadne, by the Hertie School, the Research Institute for Sustainability - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS) and the RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. The Ariadne project, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), explores in a consortium of more than 25 research institutions the political, economic and societal conditions for the success of the energy transition and develops action-relevant knowledge for political decision-makers.

The survey data underlying the maps come from two nationwide representative panel studies conducted between 2017 and 2021: the Social Sustainability Barometer of the Energy and Transport Transition (SNB; Research Institute for Sustainability - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS)) and the Ariadne Heat and Housing Panel (WWP; RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)). The SNB is a representative online panel survey of over 6,500 people on the topics of energy and transport, which has been conducted in Germany since 2017. Further details and data on the surveys can be retrieved for the years from 2017 to 2019 here and for 2021 and the following years online in an interactive data visualization.

The WWP is an online panel survey conducted among around 15,000 households since 2021, which addresses questions in the building sector (further information can be found online).

Robust statements about public opinion at the local level are rarely available, as most surveys are only representative at the national level. Therefore, the use of simple sample means to approximate the average local opinion is usually misleading, because the small number of respondents in the local sample means that random deviations can lead to significant differences between sample and population mean at the local level. In the Ariadne project, a modern multilevel and post-stratification method (MrP) was used in combination with machine learning methods to determine local support for climate protection measures. 

The MrP method divides the population into a multitude of sociodemographic ideal types and estimates the average opinion for each ideal type in each local area based on extensive survey data and high-resolution context information. Subsequently, these ideal types are aggregated into locally representative estimates based on census data and using post-stratification procedures and census information. For this analysis, extensive survey data from the Social Sustainability Barometer (SNB) and the Ariadne Heat Panel as well as census information on the (combined) distribution of gender, age groups, and educational degrees for each locality are used. The following data are used as context-level data: population size, total number of cars, number of private cars, unemployment rate, proportion of households with low income, proportion of highly qualified employees, size of the local economy, economic size of the local transport sector, economic size of the local energy sector, economic size of the local mining sector, local generation capacity for wind, sun, and lignite, total land area of a region, settlement area, average living space per person, number of buildings that exclusively use renewable energies, total number of heating systems, number of houses connected to district heating, number of buildings heated with cogeneration plants, and federal election results of the Greens, the AfD, and the FDP in each locality. Depending on data availability, the data are collected on an annual basis and matched with the respective year of the individual data. 

The data represent the best estimates based on all available data and the most advanced statistical methods. However, the determined estimates may deviate from real average values. To estimate how large the expected deviation between real average values and the MrP estimates is, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication compared similar MrP estimates to local climate protection attitudes in US States and US Metropolitan Areas, with survey results they specifically conducted in these States and Metropolitan Areas for this purpose. They found that the MrP estimates deviate from the survey results by only an average of 2.29 percentage points in US states and 3.6 percentage points in Metropolitan Areas. In general, estimates for larger units (federal states) are more reliable than estimates for smaller units (municipalities). 

Further details on the data and methods used can be found in the article: Levi, Wolf, Sommer & Howe (2023): Local support of climate change policies in Germany over time. Environmental research letters, 18(6): 064046. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acd406.

All results for the total of 26 climate protection measures can be found in the project's own Online Explorer. Here, the extent of support at the level of the federal states, districts and independent cities, as well as municipalities (over 10,000 inhabitants) and for city districts (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich) can be viewed. It is also possible to create regional profiles that allow the comparison of different attitudes and measures. In addition, temporal developments of public opinion can be represented.